XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | N/A |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $35.77 | |
Current Price
$196.83
Market-Implied Growth
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Base-Case Model Value
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XPO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XPO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $163.0M · 0.12B shares · net debt $3.6B
Estimated Fair Value
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These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
About XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions, operating extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally. The company's business activities are structured into two primary divisions. The North American LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment delivers crucial LTL services, guaranteeing timely and geographically comprehensive transportation for regional, inter-regional, and cross-continental freight. This division also handles cross-border shipments connecting the U.S. with Mexico and Canada, alongside domestic services within Canada. Its second division, Brokerage and Other Services, focuses on the crucial final leg of delivery for substantial goods purchased through e-commerce platforms, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels. Furthermore, this segment provides brokered freight services that fall outside its core operations. XPO serves a wide range of industries, including industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and general transportation, and consumer goods. Founded in 2000, the company is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- Mario A. Harik