A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 10.5% | N/A |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$202.58
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XPO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $165.0M · 0.12B shares · net debt $3.6B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
