Why we don't show a single “fair value” for WPM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($35.72) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$115.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +58.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.0% | $22.98 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.0% | $28.82 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.0% | $35.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $47.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$115.41
Market-Implied Growth
+58.7%/yr
vs +18.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$28.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WPM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $471.4M · 0.45B shares · net cash $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$28.82
-75.0% vs $115.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $115.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $34.32 | $36.58 | $39.26 | $42.46 | $46.38 |
| 9.0% | $29.73 | $31.35 | $33.22 | $35.40 | $37.98 |
| 10.0% | $26.23 | $27.44 | $28.82 | $30.38 | $32.18 |
| 11.0% | $23.49 | $24.42 | $25.46 | $26.62 | $27.95 |
| 12.0% | $21.28 | $22.01 | $22.82 | $23.72 | $24.72 |
