TGM's two-stage DCF values Workday, Inc. (WDAY) between $159.15 and $272.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $208.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$186.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.7%/yr | 10.4% | $159.15 |
| Base case | 17.7%/yr | 9.4% | $208.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.4% | $272.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $126.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$186.28
Market-Implied Growth
+14.9%/yr
vs +18.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$159.15 – $272.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WDAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.26B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$208.70
+12.0% vs $186.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $186.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $257 | $278 | $304 | $335 | $374 |
| 8.4% | $216 | $231 | $248 | $268 | $293 |
| 9.4% | $186 | $196 | $209 | $223 | $239 |
| 10.4% | $162 | $170 | $179 | $190 | $202 |
| 11.4% | $144 | $150 | $157 | $165 | $173 |
