Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VMI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($223.16) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$492.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 11.8% | $125.12 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 10.8% | $166.39 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 9.8% | $223.16 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $170.76 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$492.91
Market-Implied Growth
+31.3%/yr
vs +5.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$166.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VMI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $272.2M · 0.02B shares · net debt $608.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$166.39
-66.2% vs $492.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $492.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $201 | $215 | $231 | $249 | $271 |
| 9.8% | $173 | $183 | $194 | $207 | $222 |
| 10.8% | $150 | $158 | $166 | $176 | $187 |
| 11.8% | $132 | $138 | $145 | $152 | $160 |
| 12.8% | $117 | $122 | $127 | $133 | $139 |
