TGM's two-stage DCF values Vale S.A. (VALE) between $14.05 and $27.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $14.05 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $18.71 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $27.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $39.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.71
Market-Implied Growth
-2.7%/yr
vs -5.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.05 – $27.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VALE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.5B · 4.26B shares · net debt $11.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.71
+27.2% vs $14.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $24.99 | $28.40 | $32.94 | $39.30 | $48.82 |
| 6.5% | $19.44 | $21.49 | $24.05 | $27.33 | $31.71 |
| 7.5% | $15.74 | $17.09 | $18.71 | $20.68 | $23.15 |
| 8.5% | $13.10 | $14.05 | $15.15 | $16.45 | $18.01 |
| 9.5% | $11.12 | $11.82 | $12.61 | $13.52 | $14.59 |
