TGM's two-stage DCF values Textron Inc. (TXT) between $55.50 and $103.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $73.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$76.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $55.50 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 8.7% | $73.26 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 7.7% | $103.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $105.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$76.81
Market-Implied Growth
+3.6%/yr
vs -0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.50 – $103.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $874.0M · 0.17B shares · net debt $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$73.26
-4.6% vs $76.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $76.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $92.92 | $102 | $113 | $128 | $147 |
| 7.7% | $76.05 | $82.18 | $89.49 | $98.34 | $109 |
| 8.7% | $63.87 | $68.21 | $73.26 | $79.17 | $86.22 |
| 9.7% | $54.66 | $57.88 | $61.53 | $65.73 | $70.59 |
| 10.7% | $47.46 | $49.92 | $52.67 | $55.77 | $59.30 |
