TGM's two-stage DCF values Textron Inc. (TXT) between $56.42 and $105.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $74.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$89.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $56.42 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 8.6% | $74.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 7.6% | $105.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$89.43
Market-Implied Growth
+6.4%/yr
vs -0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$56.42 – $105.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $874.0M · 0.17B shares · net debt $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$74.64
-16.5% vs $89.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $89.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $94.97 | $105 | $116 | $132 | $152 |
| 7.6% | $77.48 | $83.85 | $91.46 | $101 | $112 |
| 8.6% | $64.93 | $69.42 | $74.64 | $80.78 | $88.12 |
| 9.6% | $55.48 | $58.79 | $62.56 | $66.89 | $71.92 |
| 10.6% | $48.11 | $50.63 | $53.46 | $56.65 | $60.29 |
