TGM's two-stage DCF values Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) between $24.50 and $46.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$39.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 8.5% | $24.50 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 7.5% | $32.92 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 6.5% | $46.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$39.63
Market-Implied Growth
+15.1%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.50 – $46.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $82.1M · 0.08B shares · net cash $117.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.92
-16.9% vs $39.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $39.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $42.49 | $47.68 | $54.60 | $64.28 | $78.79 |
| 6.5% | $34.04 | $37.15 | $41.04 | $46.04 | $52.70 |
| 7.5% | $28.41 | $30.46 | $32.92 | $35.92 | $39.66 |
| 8.5% | $24.41 | $25.84 | $27.51 | $29.49 | $31.85 |
| 9.5% | $21.41 | $22.46 | $23.66 | $25.04 | $26.65 |
