Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TNK
Even the conservative scenario ($179.55) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 8.5% | $179.55 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 7.5% | $236.90 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 6.5% | $328.59 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $160.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$76.78
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$236.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TNK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $287.2M · 0.03B shares · net cash $793.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$236.90
+208.5% vs $76.78
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $76.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $302 | $337 | $383 | $449 | $547 |
| 6.5% | $244 | $265 | $292 | $326 | $371 |
| 7.5% | $206 | $220 | $237 | $257 | $282 |
| 8.5% | $179 | $189 | $200 | $214 | $230 |
| 9.5% | $159 | $166 | $174 | $184 | $195 |
