Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TNK
Even the conservative scenario ($236.28) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$100.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 8.5% | $236.28 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 7.5% | $315.04 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 6.5% | $440.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $154.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$100.83
Market-Implied Growth
-14.9%/yr
vs +15.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$315.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TNK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $287.2M · 0.03B shares · net cash $793.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$315.04
+212.4% vs $100.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $100.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $406 | $455 | $521 | $613 | $751 |
| 6.5% | $326 | $355 | $392 | $440 | $503 |
| 7.5% | $272 | $292 | $315 | $343 | $379 |
| 8.5% | $234 | $248 | $264 | $282 | $305 |
| 9.5% | $206 | $216 | $227 | $240 | $256 |
