TGM's two-stage DCF values ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) between $68.84 and $115.53 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $89.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$133.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | $68.84 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $89.65 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $115.53 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $108.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$133.88
Market-Implied Growth
+28.6%/yr
vs +24.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$68.84 – $115.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NOW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 1.03B shares · net cash $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$89.65
-33.0% vs $133.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $133.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $111 | $120 | $132 | $146 | $165 |
| 8.0% | $92.76 | $99.22 | $107 | $116 | $127 |
| 9.0% | $79.68 | $84.31 | $89.65 | $95.87 | $103 |
| 10.0% | $69.72 | $73.18 | $77.08 | $81.54 | $86.68 |
| 11.0% | $61.90 | $64.55 | $67.51 | $70.84 | $74.60 |
