TGM's two-stage DCF values Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) between $89.35 and $187.86 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $127.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$148.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 8.5% | $89.35 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 7.5% | $127.26 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 6.5% | $187.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $183.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$148.49
Market-Implied Growth
+11.2%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$89.35 – $187.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MRK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.5B · 2.47B shares · net debt $35.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$127.26
-14.3% vs $148.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $148.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $170 | $193 | $224 | $267 | $332 |
| 6.5% | $132 | $146 | $164 | $186 | $216 |
| 7.5% | $107 | $116 | $127 | $141 | $157 |
| 8.5% | $89.22 | $95.63 | $103 | $112 | $123 |
| 9.5% | $75.81 | $80.51 | $85.88 | $92.06 | $99.27 |
