TGM's two-stage DCF values Medline Inc. (MDLN) between $20.19 and $51.43 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$38.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.5% | $20.19 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.5% | $32.21 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.5% | $51.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $70.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.75
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
Model Scenario Range
$20.19 – $51.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MDLN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.85B shares · net debt $10.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$32.21
-16.9% vs $38.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $45.86 | $53.26 | $63.12 | $76.92 | $97.60 |
| 6.5% | $33.81 | $38.25 | $43.79 | $50.92 | $60.41 |
| 7.5% | $25.79 | $28.71 | $32.21 | $36.49 | $41.83 |
| 8.5% | $20.08 | $22.12 | $24.51 | $27.32 | $30.69 |
| 9.5% | $15.80 | $17.30 | $19.01 | $20.99 | $23.28 |
