Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JBL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($122.35) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$316.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.5% | $73.03 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 10.5% | $92.56 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 9.5% | $122.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $93.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$316.74
Market-Implied Growth
+33.3%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$92.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $818.0M · 0.10B shares · net debt $952.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$92.56
-70.8% vs $316.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $316.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $111 | $118 | $127 | $136 | $148 |
| 9.5% | $95.76 | $101 | $107 | $114 | $122 |
| 10.5% | $84.01 | $88.04 | $92.56 | $97.69 | $104 |
| 11.5% | $74.60 | $77.75 | $81.24 | $85.13 | $89.50 |
| 12.5% | $66.91 | $69.43 | $72.18 | $75.22 | $78.59 |
