Jabil Inc. (JBL) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JBL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($121.46) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$358.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.5% | $72.62 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 10.5% | $91.89 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 9.5% | $121.46 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $103.18 | |
Current Price
$358.60
Market-Implied Growth
+36.8%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$91.89
model output — not a price target
JBL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $818.0M · 0.11B shares · net debt $952.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$93.31
-74.0% vs $358.60
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $358.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $116 | $121 | $128 | $135 | $144 |
| 9.5% | $99.89 | $104 | $108 | $113 | $119 |
| 10.5% | $87.46 | $90.21 | $93.31 | $96.81 | $101 |
| 11.5% | $77.54 | $79.58 | $81.85 | $84.38 | $87.23 |
| 12.5% | $69.43 | $70.98 | $72.68 | $74.57 | $76.66 |
About Jabil Inc.
Jabil Inc. is a global provider of manufacturing services and comprehensive solutions. The company organizes its operations into two main divisions: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS). Its offerings span the entire lifecycle of electronic products, from initial design and production to ongoing product management. Jabil provides a range of electronic design services, including the creation of application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), firmware development, and rapid prototyping capabilities. They also engineer custom plastic and metal enclosures, integrating essential electromechanical components such as printed circuit board assemblies (PCBAs). Furthermore, Jabil excels in advanced three-dimensional mechanical design, performing detailed analysis of electronic, electromechanical, and optical assemblies. This is complemented by various industrial design services, mechanism development, and tooling management. The company extends its expertise to computer-aided design (CAD) for PCBA layouts, alongside crucial validation and verification services for these designs. Consulting services are also available, assisting clients with generating bills of materials (BOM), approved vendor lists (AVL), and configuring assembly equipment tailored for different PCBA projects. Beyond design, Jabil conducts extensive product and process validation, encompassing rigorous product system, safety, regulatory compliance, and reliability tests. They also specialize in developing customized manufacturing test solutions. Post-production services include systems assembly, final testing, direct-order fulfillment, and configure-to-order (CTO) capabilities. Jabil serves a broad spectrum of industries, including 5G, wireless and cloud infrastructure, digital printing and retail, industrial and semiconductor capital equipment, networking and data storage, automotive and transportation, connected devices, healthcare and packaging, and the mobility sector. The company, originally incorporated as Jabil Circuit, Inc., adopted its current name, Jabil Inc., in June 2017. Founded in 1966, Jabil Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Michael Dastoor