Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JBL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($120.46) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$372.45 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $72.14 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 10.6% | $91.31 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 9.6% | $120.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $97.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$372.45
Market-Implied Growth
+38.1%/yr
vs +2.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$91.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $818.0M · 0.10B shares · net debt $952.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$91.31
-75.5% vs $372.45
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $372.45; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $109 | $116 | $124 | $134 | $145 |
| 9.6% | $94.46 | $99.61 | $105 | $112 | $120 |
| 10.6% | $82.97 | $86.90 | $91.31 | $96.28 | $102 |
| 11.6% | $73.77 | $76.84 | $80.24 | $84.04 | $88.29 |
| 12.6% | $66.22 | $68.68 | $71.37 | $74.34 | $77.63 |
