Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JBHT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($59.98) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$272.18 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.5% | $29.68 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 10.5% | $42.27 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 9.5% | $59.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $54.75 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$272.18
Market-Implied Growth
+45.3%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$42.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBHT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $426.9M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$42.27
-84.5% vs $272.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $272.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $53.19 | $57.50 | $62.53 | $68.46 | $75.56 |
| 9.5% | $44.17 | $47.34 | $50.95 | $55.11 | $59.95 |
| 10.5% | $37.16 | $39.57 | $42.27 | $45.32 | $48.80 |
| 11.5% | $31.56 | $33.43 | $35.52 | $37.84 | $40.44 |
| 12.5% | $26.98 | $28.47 | $30.12 | $31.93 | $33.94 |
