Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ISRG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($87.62) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.3%/yr | 12.3% | $57.86 |
| Base case | 15.3%/yr | 11.3% | $70.48 |
| Optimistic | 18.3%/yr | 10.3% | $87.62 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $123.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$350.30
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$70.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ISRG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.35B shares · net cash $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$70.48
-79.9% vs $350.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $350.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $81.40 | $85.46 | $90.12 | $95.51 | $102 |
| 10.3% | $72.51 | $75.57 | $79.02 | $82.94 | $87.42 |
| 11.3% | $65.47 | $67.84 | $70.48 | $73.43 | $76.75 |
| 12.3% | $59.75 | $61.63 | $63.70 | $65.99 | $68.53 |
| 13.3% | $55.03 | $56.55 | $58.20 | $60.02 | $62.01 |
