Why we don't show a single “fair value” for IFF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($18.27) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$84.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.3%/yr | 9.8% | $0.88 |
| Base case | 4.3%/yr | 8.8% | $7.90 |
| Optimistic | 7.3%/yr | 7.8% | $18.27 |
Current Price
$84.31
Market-Implied Growth
+37.1%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$7.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IFF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $429.0M · 0.26B shares · net debt $5.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.90
-90.6% vs $84.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $84.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $14.73 | $17.88 | $21.76 | $26.66 | $33.04 |
| 7.8% | $8.88 | $11.00 | $13.52 | $16.56 | $20.30 |
| 8.8% | $4.65 | $6.16 | $7.90 | $9.95 | $12.37 |
| 9.8% | $1.43 | $2.55 | $3.82 | $5.28 | $6.96 |
| 10.8% | N/A | N/A | $0.73 | $1.81 | $3.04 |
