Why we don't show a single “fair value” for IFF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($32.54) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$75.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 9.8% | $8.78 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 8.8% | $18.37 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 7.8% | $32.54 |
Current Price
$75.94
Market-Implied Growth
+34.8%/yr
vs +11.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$18.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IFF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $429.0M · 0.26B shares · net debt $5.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.37
-75.8% vs $75.94
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $27.99 | $32.43 | $37.90 | $44.81 | $53.80 |
| 7.8% | $19.76 | $22.74 | $26.28 | $30.56 | $35.83 |
| 8.8% | $13.79 | $15.92 | $18.37 | $21.25 | $24.66 |
| 9.8% | $9.28 | $10.85 | $12.64 | $14.68 | $17.05 |
| 10.8% | $5.75 | $6.95 | $8.30 | $9.81 | $11.54 |
