TGM's two-stage DCF values Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) between $115.49 and $226.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $165.51. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$302.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.4% | $115.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.4% | $165.51 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.4% | $226.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $130.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$302.89
Market-Implied Growth
+30.9%/yr
vs +25.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$115.49 – $226.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HLT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.23B shares · net debt $11.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$165.51
-45.4% vs $302.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $302.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $215 | $236 | $262 | $293 | $332 |
| 8.4% | $173 | $188 | $205 | $226 | $250 |
| 9.4% | $142 | $153 | $166 | $180 | $196 |
| 10.4% | $119 | $127 | $136 | $146 | $158 |
| 11.4% | $99.67 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $130 |
