Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)'s fair value in a range of $72.31 – $135.85 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $342.57 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $342.57, the market is pricing in roughly +20.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +45.6%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$342.57
Fair-Value Range
$72.31 – $135.85
Market-Implied Growth
+20.5%/yr
vs +45.6% 5Y actual
HLT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.23B shares · net debt $12.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.31
-78.9% vs $342.57
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $342.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $103 | $112 | $121 | $133 | $147 |
| 9.0% | $80.96 | $86.54 | $92.99 | $101 | $109 |
| 10.0% | $63.84 | $67.81 | $72.31 | $77.46 | $83.39 |
| 11.0% | $50.38 | $53.29 | $56.55 | $60.21 | $64.36 |
| 12.0% | $39.53 | $41.72 | $44.14 | $46.82 | $49.83 |
About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. operates as a prominent global hospitality enterprise, focusing on the management, franchising, and leasing of hotel and resort properties. Its business model is primarily structured around two main divisions: the Management and Franchise segment, and the Ownership segment. A significant part of its activities includes directly overseeing hotel operations and permitting the use of its distinctive brand names, trademarks, and service marks through licensing agreements. Hilton boasts an extensive and varied portfolio of hotel brands, encompassing categories such as luxury, lifestyle, full-service, focused-service, all-suites, and timeshare properties. This comprehensive collection features renowned names like Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors. Globally, the company's operational footprint covers vast regions including North, South, and Central America (with a strong presence in numerous Caribbean nations), alongside Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the entire Asia Pacific area. Established in 1919, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in McLean, Virginia.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Lodging
- CEO
- Christopher J. Nassetta