TGM's two-stage DCF values Energy Transfer LP (ET) between $21.37 and $60.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $36.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.2%/yr | 8.5% | $21.37 |
| Base case | 13.2%/yr | 7.5% | $36.59 |
| Optimistic | 16.2%/yr | 6.5% | $60.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $62.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.13
Market-Implied Growth
+5.0%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.37 – $60.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ET (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.0B · 3.44B shares · net debt $68.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$36.59
+81.8% vs $20.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $54.07 | $63.54 | $76.17 | $93.83 | $120 |
| 6.5% | $38.64 | $44.32 | $51.42 | $60.53 | $72.68 |
| 7.5% | $28.38 | $32.12 | $36.59 | $42.06 | $48.89 |
| 8.5% | $21.07 | $23.69 | $26.74 | $30.33 | $34.64 |
| 9.5% | $15.61 | $17.53 | $19.71 | $22.23 | $25.17 |
