EQT Corporation (EQT) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values EQT Corporation (EQT) between $61.41 and $126.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $88.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $61.41 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $88.67 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $126.47 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $246.87 | |
Current Price
$51.94
Market-Implied Growth
+7.1%/yr
vs +26.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$61.41 – $126.47
model output — not a price target
EQT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EQT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.63B shares · net debt $7.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$166.51
+220.6% vs $51.94
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $238 | $268 | $308 | $363 | $447 |
| 6.5% | $181 | $198 | $219 | $247 | $283 |
| 7.5% | $143 | $154 | $167 | $182 | $202 |
| 8.5% | $116 | $123 | $132 | $142 | $153 |
| 9.5% | $96.58 | $102 | $107 | $114 | $121 |
About EQT Corporation
EQT Corporation primarily functions as an extractor of natural gas within the United States. In addition to natural gas, the firm also obtains various natural gas liquids (NGLs), specifically ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, and natural gasoline. By the end of 2021, EQT possessed certified reserves amounting to 25.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil. These reserves are situated across roughly 2.0 million gross acres, with a significant 1.7 million gross acres located within the Marcellus shale formation. The company, which dates back to its founding in 1878, has its principal offices in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Toby Z. Rice