TGM's two-stage DCF values EQT Corporation (EQT) between $61.40 and $126.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $88.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$52.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $61.40 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $88.66 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $126.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $229.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$52.59
Market-Implied Growth
+7.3%/yr
vs +20.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$61.40 – $126.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EQT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.63B shares · net debt $7.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$88.66
+68.6% vs $52.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $52.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $120 | $138 | $161 | $193 | $241 |
| 6.5% | $92.39 | $103 | $116 | $132 | $154 |
| 7.5% | $73.77 | $80.54 | $88.66 | $98.58 | $111 |
| 8.5% | $60.52 | $65.25 | $70.78 | $77.29 | $85.11 |
| 9.5% | $50.62 | $54.09 | $58.05 | $62.61 | $67.92 |
