Why we don't show a single “fair value” for EMR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($55.95) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$152.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.2% | $28.45 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.2% | $38.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.2% | $55.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $105.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$152.71
Market-Implied Growth
+29.8%/yr
vs +0.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$38.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EMR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.5B · 0.56B shares · net debt $11.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.23
-75.0% vs $152.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $152.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $49.19 | $53.62 | $58.83 | $65.02 | $72.52 |
| 9.2% | $40.09 | $43.31 | $46.99 | $51.27 | $56.29 |
| 10.2% | $33.09 | $35.50 | $38.23 | $41.33 | $44.89 |
| 11.2% | $27.53 | $29.40 | $31.49 | $33.82 | $36.46 |
| 12.2% | $23.01 | $24.49 | $26.13 | $27.94 | $29.95 |
