Why we don't show a single “fair value” for EMR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($54.81) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$147.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.3% | $27.90 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.3% | $37.48 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.3% | $54.81 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$147.94
Market-Implied Growth
+29.5%/yr
vs +0.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$37.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EMR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.5B · 0.56B shares · net debt $11.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.48
-74.7% vs $147.94
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $147.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $48.16 | $52.44 | $57.46 | $63.41 | $70.60 |
| 9.3% | $39.31 | $42.43 | $46.00 | $50.13 | $54.97 |
| 10.3% | $32.47 | $34.83 | $37.48 | $40.49 | $43.94 |
| 11.3% | $27.03 | $28.86 | $30.90 | $33.17 | $35.73 |
| 12.3% | $22.60 | $24.05 | $25.65 | $27.42 | $29.38 |
