TGM's two-stage DCF values D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) between $92.29 and $156.64 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $119.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$143.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 11.8% | $92.29 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 10.8% | $119.38 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 9.8% | $156.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $124.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$143.06
Market-Implied Growth
+9.3%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$92.29 – $156.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DHI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.28B shares · net debt $3.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$119.38
-16.6% vs $143.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $143.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $142 | $151 | $161 | $173 | $188 |
| 9.8% | $123 | $130 | $138 | $146 | $156 |
| 10.8% | $109 | $114 | $119 | $126 | $133 |
| 11.8% | $96.84 | $101 | $105 | $110 | $115 |
| 12.8% | $87.06 | $90.23 | $93.71 | $97.52 | $102 |
