TGM's two-stage DCF values D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) between $91.20 and $154.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $117.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$140.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 11.9% | $91.20 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 10.9% | $117.81 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 9.9% | $154.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $120.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$140.20
Market-Implied Growth
+9.2%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$91.20 – $154.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DHI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.28B shares · net debt $3.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$117.81
-16.0% vs $140.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $140.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $140 | $149 | $159 | $170 | $184 |
| 9.9% | $122 | $128 | $135 | $144 | $153 |
| 10.9% | $107 | $112 | $118 | $124 | $131 |
| 11.9% | $95.77 | $99.64 | $104 | $109 | $114 |
| 12.9% | $86.18 | $89.29 | $92.68 | $96.41 | $101 |
