TGM's two-stage DCF values CVS Health Corp. (CVS) between $82.06 and $212.53 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $132.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$96.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.3%/yr | 8.5% | $82.06 |
| Base case | 8.3%/yr | 7.5% | $132.27 |
| Optimistic | 11.3%/yr | 6.5% | $212.53 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $353.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$96.07
Market-Implied Growth
+3.3%/yr
vs +8.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$82.06 – $212.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.1B · 1.28B shares · net debt $70.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$132.27
+37.7% vs $96.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $96.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $189 | $220 | $261 | $318 | $404 |
| 6.5% | $139 | $157 | $180 | $210 | $249 |
| 7.5% | $106 | $118 | $132 | $150 | $172 |
| 8.5% | $81.83 | $90.33 | $100 | $112 | $126 |
| 9.5% | $64.05 | $70.29 | $77.40 | $85.60 | $95.16 |
