Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) between $15.92 and $28.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $21.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.18 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.6% | $15.92 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.6% | $21.43 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.6% | $28.46 |
Current Price
$29.18
Market-Implied Growth
+25.6%/yr
vs +81.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.92 – $28.46
model output — not a price target
CELH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CELH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.6M · 0.26B shares · net debt $271.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$37.86
+29.8% vs $29.18
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $50.96 | $55.42 | $60.97 | $68.05 | $77.43 |
| 7.6% | $40.91 | $43.72 | $47.09 | $51.19 | $56.29 |
| 8.6% | $33.78 | $35.67 | $37.86 | $40.45 | $43.55 |
| 9.6% | $28.48 | $29.80 | $31.31 | $33.05 | $35.08 |
| 10.6% | $24.41 | $25.37 | $26.45 | $27.67 | $29.06 |
About Celsius Holdings, Inc.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the development, production, promotion, and distribution of functional beverages and liquid nutritional supplements. Its extensive reach covers North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets. The company's diverse product lineup includes CELSIUS Originals, offering both sparkling and still functional energy drinks. For a dietary supplement with an energy boost, they provide CELSIUS HEAT, available in carbonated varieties like apple jack'd, orangesicle, and inferno punch, as well as cherry lime, blueberry pomegranate, strawberry dragon fruit, tangerine grapefruit, and jackfruit. Muscle recovery is addressed with CELSIUS BCCA+ENERGY, a functional energy drink rich in branched-chain amino acids. Consumers seeking on-the-go options can find CELSIUS On-the-Go, which packages the active ingredients of their energy drinks as a powder in individual packets and canisters. Additionally, their CELSIUS Sweetened line features non-carbonated functional energy drinks in flavors such as sparkling grapefruit, cucumber lime, orange pomegranate, pineapple coconut, watermelon berry, and strawberries and cream. Celsius Holdings ensures its products reach a broad audience through a multifaceted distribution strategy, encompassing direct-to-store delivery partnerships, direct sales to various retailers including supermarkets, convenience stores, pharmacies, nutritional stores, and mass merchants, as well as sales to health clubs, spas, gyms, the military, and e-commerce channels. Founded in 2004 as Vector Ventures, Inc. before adopting its current name in January 2007, the company's headquarters are located in Boca Raton, Florida.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
- CEO
- Eric Hanson