TGM's two-stage DCF values Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) between $15.66 and $27.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $21.04. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.45 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.7% | $15.66 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.7% | $21.04 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.7% | $27.85 |
Current Price
$29.45
Market-Implied Growth
+26.3%/yr
vs +81.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.66 – $27.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CELH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.6M · 0.26B shares · net debt $271.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.04
-28.5% vs $29.45
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.45; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $26.61 | $29.21 | $32.42 | $36.49 | $41.84 |
| 7.7% | $21.84 | $23.57 | $25.63 | $28.13 | $31.22 |
| 8.7% | $18.40 | $19.62 | $21.04 | $22.71 | $24.69 |
| 9.7% | $15.82 | $16.72 | $17.74 | $18.92 | $20.29 |
| 10.7% | $13.80 | $14.49 | $15.26 | $16.13 | $17.12 |
