Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$29.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $3.28 |
Current Price
$29.07
Market-Implied Growth
+45.8%/yr
vs +187.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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CCL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CCL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 1.37B shares · net debt $24.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.34
-64.4% vs $29.07
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $17.29 | $18.90 | $20.75 | $22.87 | $25.35 |
| 10.5% | $12.38 | $13.55 | $14.86 | $16.34 | $18.04 |
| 11.5% | $8.51 | $9.38 | $10.34 | $11.41 | $12.62 |
| 12.5% | $5.39 | $6.05 | $6.77 | $7.57 | $8.46 |
| 13.5% | $2.84 | $3.35 | $3.90 | $4.50 | $5.17 |
About Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. Customers primarily book their cruises through a network of travel agencies, tour operators, vacation planners, and direct online channels. The corporation maintains a broad international presence, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and other global markets. It commands a significant fleet of 87 ships, collectively providing capacity for 223,000 passengers in lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was established in 1972 and has its headquarters situated in Miami, Florida.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Leisure
- CEO
- Joshua Ian Weinstein