TGM's two-stage DCF values Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) between $49.17 and $123.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.02. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$105.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $49.17 |
| Base case | 3.1%/yr | 7.5% | $77.02 |
| Optimistic | 6.1%/yr | 6.5% | $123.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $135.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$105.61
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs +0.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$49.17 – $123.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AKAM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $757.8M · 0.15B shares · net debt $4.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$77.02
-27.1% vs $105.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $105.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $109 | $127 | $150 | $183 | $232 |
| 6.5% | $80.79 | $91.34 | $105 | $121 | $144 |
| 7.5% | $61.74 | $68.69 | $77.02 | $87.19 | $99.89 |
| 8.5% | $48.14 | $53.01 | $58.69 | $65.39 | $73.43 |
| 9.5% | $37.94 | $41.52 | $45.60 | $50.30 | $55.78 |
