TGM's two-stage DCF values Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) between $68.10 and $136.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $91.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$76.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $68.10 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $91.32 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $136.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $79.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$76.59
Market-Implied Growth
-1.4%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$68.10 – $136.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.48B shares · net debt $7.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$91.32
+19.2% vs $76.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $76.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $123 | $140 | $162 | $194 | $241 |
| 6.5% | $94.96 | $105 | $118 | $134 | $156 |
| 7.5% | $76.53 | $83.26 | $91.32 | $101 | $113 |
| 8.5% | $63.37 | $68.09 | $73.59 | $80.07 | $87.85 |
| 9.5% | $53.50 | $56.97 | $60.92 | $65.47 | $70.77 |
