Exxon Mobil Corporation logo
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Compare

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) DCF Valuation

Price is ABOVE the estimated range
$124.52
$136.60
Estimated fair value
$151.06
Today's price

Two independent models estimate Exxon Mobil Corporation's fair value between $124.52 (conservative case) and $136.60 (analyst consensus).

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+6.3%/yr
Actual growth, last 5 years+36.2%/yr

$151.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.3% a year for the next decade — slower than the company has actually grown.

Current Price

$151.06

Fair-Value Range

$124.52 – $136.60

Market-Implied Growth

+6.3%/yr

vs +36.2% 5Y actual

XOM DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.

5%/yr
Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y -31.5% · 5Y 36.2% · 10Y 20.5%
10%
2.5%
10yr

Base inputs: FCF $36.5B · 4.15B shares · net debt $32.9B

Estimated Fair Value

$136.60

-9.6% vs $151.06

Current price$151.06
Analyst DCF (FMP)$124.52

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $151.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
8.0%$172$181$192$205$221
9.0%$146$153$160$168$178
10.0%$127$132$137$142$149
11.0%$112$115$119$123$128
12.0%$99.65$102$105$108$111

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.

Spring, TX
61,000 employees
Energy / Oil & Gas Integrated
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated
CEO
Darren W. Woods