Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)'s fair value in a range of $124.05 – $136.61 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $148.91 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $148.91, the market is pricing in roughly +6.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +36.2%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$148.91
Fair-Value Range
$124.05 – $136.61
Market-Implied Growth
+6.1%/yr
vs +36.2% 5Y actual
XOM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $36.5B · 4.14B shares · net debt $32.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$136.61
-8.3% vs $148.91
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $148.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $172 | $181 | $192 | $205 | $221 |
| 9.0% | $146 | $153 | $160 | $168 | $178 |
| 10.0% | $127 | $132 | $137 | $142 | $149 |
| 11.0% | $112 | $115 | $119 | $123 | $128 |
| 12.0% | $99.65 | $102 | $105 | $108 | $111 |
About Exxon Mobil Corporation
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- CEO
- Darren W. Woods