TGM's two-stage DCF values Waste Management, Inc. (WM) between $41.11 and $134.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$224.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.1%/yr | 8.5% | $41.11 |
| Base case | 8.1%/yr | 7.5% | $76.97 |
| Optimistic | 11.1%/yr | 6.5% | $134.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $313.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$224.21
Market-Implied Growth
+26.4%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$41.11 – $134.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1B · 0.40B shares · net debt $22.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$76.97
-65.7% vs $224.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $224.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $117 | $139 | $169 | $209 | $271 |
| 6.5% | $81.69 | $94.86 | $111 | $132 | $161 |
| 7.5% | $57.92 | $66.59 | $76.97 | $89.66 | $105 |
| 8.5% | $40.97 | $47.04 | $54.11 | $62.46 | $72.47 |
| 9.5% | $28.28 | $32.73 | $37.81 | $43.66 | $50.48 |
