TGM's two-stage DCF values Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) between $110.10 and $218.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $153.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$301.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.4%/yr | 9.8% | $110.10 |
| Base case | 12.4%/yr | 8.8% | $153.84 |
| Optimistic | 15.4%/yr | 7.8% | $218.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $243.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$301.25
Market-Implied Growth
+27.6%/yr
vs +15.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$110.10 – $218.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WAB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.17B shares · net debt $4.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$153.84
-48.9% vs $301.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $301.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $198 | $218 | $243 | $275 | $316 |
| 7.8% | $160 | $174 | $190 | $210 | $234 |
| 8.8% | $133 | $143 | $154 | $167 | $183 |
| 9.8% | $112 | $119 | $128 | $137 | $148 |
| 10.8% | $96.18 | $102 | $108 | $115 | $123 |