TGM's two-stage DCF values Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) between $108.76 and $217.41 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $152.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$280.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 9.7% | $108.76 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 8.7% | $152.49 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 7.7% | $217.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $241.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$280.63
Market-Implied Growth
+25.4%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$108.76 – $217.41
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WAB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.17B shares · net debt $4.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$152.49
-45.7% vs $280.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $280.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $197 | $217 | $243 | $275 | $318 |
| 7.7% | $159 | $173 | $189 | $209 | $233 |
| 8.7% | $131 | $141 | $152 | $166 | $182 |
| 9.7% | $111 | $118 | $126 | $136 | $146 |
| 10.7% | $94.76 | $100 | $106 | $113 | $121 |