TGM's two-stage DCF values Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) between $82.49 and $176.55 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $118.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$214.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.6% | $82.49 |
| Base case | 3.3%/yr | 7.6% | $118.32 |
| Optimistic | 6.3%/yr | 6.6% | $176.55 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $285.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$214.13
Market-Implied Growth
+15.8%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$82.49 – $176.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $875.4M · 0.13B shares · net debt $2.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$118.32
-44.7% vs $214.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $214.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $158 | $180 | $208 | $248 | $306 |
| 6.6% | $123 | $136 | $152 | $173 | $200 |
| 7.6% | $99.32 | $108 | $118 | $131 | $147 |
| 8.6% | $82.25 | $88.35 | $95.45 | $104 | $114 |
| 9.6% | $69.40 | $73.90 | $79.02 | $84.91 | $91.76 |
