Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) between $82.49 and $176.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $118.02. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$183.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.6% | $82.49 |
| Base case | 3.3%/yr | 7.6% | $118.02 |
| Optimistic | 6.3%/yr | 6.6% | $176.12 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $305.82 | |
Current Price
$183.80
Market-Implied Growth
+12.5%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$82.49 – $176.12
model output — not a price target
VRSK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $875.4M · 0.13B shares · net debt $2.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$122.40
-33.4% vs $183.80
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $183.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $171 | $191 | $216 | $251 | $303 |
| 6.6% | $133 | $144 | $158 | $175 | $199 |
| 7.6% | $107 | $114 | $122 | $133 | $145 |
| 8.6% | $88.51 | $93.21 | $98.67 | $105 | $113 |
| 9.6% | $74.60 | $77.89 | $81.64 | $85.97 | $91.00 |
About Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Verisk Analytics, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced data analytics. It offers predictive insights and decision-making tools to a diverse clientele across numerous sectors. These include risk assessment (such as rating, underwriting, and claims), catastrophe and weather risk management, global risk analytics, natural resource intelligence, economic forecasting, commercial banking, finance, and many other specialized areas. The company's operations are organized into three primary divisions: Insurance, Energy and Specialized Markets, and Financial Services. Within the Insurance segment, Verisk assists property and casualty insurers by focusing on anticipating potential losses, accurately selecting and pricing risks, and ensuring regulatory compliance. This division develops sophisticated machine learning and artificial intelligence models to predict various scenarios and generate both standard and tailored analytics. These solutions empower clients to effectively manage their operations, encompassing early detection and post-event analysis of fraud, as well as precise loss quantification. The Energy and Specialized Markets segment delivers comprehensive data analytics for the entire natural resources value chain, spanning energy, chemicals, metals, mining, power, and renewable sectors. It also offers extensive research and advisory services, guiding clients on critical decisions related to capital allocation, asset appraisal and benchmarking, commodity market trends, and corporate performance. Additionally, this segment provides specialized consultancy in areas such as optimizing business environments, implementing improvements, developing strategic plans, offering commercial advice, and facilitating transaction support, along with expert analysis and guidance concerning assets, corporations, governmental bodies, and broader market dynamics. Finally, the Financial Services segment furnishes financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulatory bodies, and merchants with essential benchmarking tools, advanced decisioning algorithms, business intelligence solutions, and bespoke analytical services. Established in 1971, Verisk Analytics, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Jersey City, New Jersey.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Services
- CEO
- Lee Shavel