TGM's two-stage DCF values Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) between $88.87 and $192.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $128.82. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$176.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.4%/yr | 8.5% | $88.87 |
| Base case | 4.4%/yr | 7.5% | $128.82 |
| Optimistic | 7.4%/yr | 6.5% | $192.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $284.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$176.20
Market-Implied Growth
+10.9%/yr
vs +7.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$88.87 – $192.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $875.4M · 0.13B shares · net debt $2.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$128.82
-26.9% vs $176.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $176.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $173 | $197 | $230 | $274 | $342 |
| 6.5% | $134 | $148 | $167 | $190 | $221 |
| 7.5% | $108 | $117 | $129 | $143 | $160 |
| 8.5% | $89.18 | $95.87 | $104 | $113 | $124 |
| 9.5% | $75.19 | $80.10 | $85.70 | $92.15 | $99.67 |
