Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VIAV
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($6.55) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.4%/yr | 11.0% | $3.92 |
| Base case | 5.4%/yr | 10.0% | $5.01 |
| Optimistic | 8.4%/yr | 9.0% | $6.55 |
Current Price
$39.14
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$5.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VIAV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $80.0M · 0.25B shares · net cash $5.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.01
-87.2% vs $39.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $39.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $5.98 | $6.38 | $6.86 | $7.42 | $8.11 |
| 9.0% | $5.17 | $5.46 | $5.79 | $6.18 | $6.63 |
| 10.0% | $4.55 | $4.76 | $5.01 | $5.29 | $5.61 |
| 11.0% | $4.06 | $4.23 | $4.41 | $4.62 | $4.85 |
| 12.0% | $3.67 | $3.80 | $3.94 | $4.10 | $4.28 |
