Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VIAV
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($5.74) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.4%/yr | 11.2% | $3.44 |
| Base case | 5.4%/yr | 10.2% | $4.40 |
| Optimistic | 8.4%/yr | 9.2% | $5.74 |
Current Price
$36.20
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$4.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VIAV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $72.9M · 0.25B shares · net debt $6.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.40
-87.8% vs $36.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $5.24 | $5.58 | $5.98 | $6.46 | $7.03 |
| 9.2% | $4.54 | $4.79 | $5.07 | $5.40 | $5.79 |
| 10.2% | $4.00 | $4.19 | $4.40 | $4.64 | $4.91 |
| 11.2% | $3.58 | $3.72 | $3.88 | $4.06 | $4.26 |
| 12.2% | $3.23 | $3.34 | $3.47 | $3.61 | $3.76 |
