Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VECO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($11.86) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$42.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 12.0% | $6.96 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 11.0% | $9.03 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 10.0% | $11.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.13
Market-Implied Growth
+44.5%/yr
vs +5.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$9.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VECO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.7M · 0.06B shares · net debt $62.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.03
-78.6% vs $42.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $10.77 | $11.43 | $12.19 | $13.07 | $14.11 |
| 10.0% | $9.35 | $9.84 | $10.40 | $11.03 | $11.77 |
| 11.0% | $8.23 | $8.61 | $9.03 | $9.51 | $10.04 |
| 12.0% | $7.32 | $7.62 | $7.95 | $8.32 | $8.73 |
| 13.0% | $6.58 | $6.82 | $7.08 | $7.37 | $7.69 |
