Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VECO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($12.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$50.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 11.7% | $7.32 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 10.7% | $9.53 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 9.7% | $12.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$50.00
Market-Implied Growth
+48.1%/yr
vs +4.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$9.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VECO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.7M · 0.06B shares · net debt $62.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.53
-80.9% vs $50.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $11.42 | $12.16 | $13.01 | $14.01 | $15.20 |
| 9.7% | $9.87 | $10.41 | $11.03 | $11.74 | $12.56 |
| 10.7% | $8.65 | $9.07 | $9.53 | $10.06 | $10.65 |
| 11.7% | $7.68 | $8.00 | $8.36 | $8.76 | $9.21 |
| 12.7% | $6.88 | $7.14 | $7.42 | $7.74 | $8.08 |
