TGM's two-stage DCF values Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) between $74.89 and $171.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $113.98. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$307.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 9.9% | $74.89 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 8.9% | $113.98 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 7.9% | $171.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $170.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$307.32
Market-Implied Growth
+24.0%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$74.89 – $171.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UNP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 0.59B shares · net debt $30.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$113.98
-62.9% vs $307.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $307.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $152 | $169 | $190 | $217 | $251 |
| 7.9% | $119 | $131 | $145 | $162 | $182 |
| 8.9% | $95.99 | $104 | $114 | $125 | $139 |
| 9.9% | $78.10 | $84.32 | $91.37 | $99.43 | $109 |
| 10.9% | $64.04 | $68.82 | $74.15 | $80.15 | $86.96 |
