TGM's two-stage DCF values Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) between $69.30 and $148.35 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $96.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$289.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $69.30 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | $96.97 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | $148.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $167.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$289.80
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs -0.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$69.30 – $148.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UNP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 0.59B shares · net debt $30.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$96.97
-66.5% vs $289.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $289.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $130 | $146 | $164 | $188 | $218 |
| 7.9% | $102 | $112 | $124 | $139 | $157 |
| 8.9% | $81.07 | $88.45 | $96.97 | $107 | $119 |
| 9.9% | $65.25 | $70.75 | $76.98 | $84.11 | $92.33 |
| 10.9% | $52.79 | $57.02 | $61.75 | $67.06 | $73.07 |
