Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)'s fair value in a range of $99.80 – $180.62 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $271.28 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $271.28, the market is pricing in roughly +15.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +0.0%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$271.28
Fair-Value Range
$99.80 – $180.62
Market-Implied Growth
+15.3%/yr
vs +0.0% 5Y actual
UNP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $5.5B · 0.59B shares · net debt $30.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$99.80
-63.2% vs $271.28
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $271.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $137 | $146 | $158 | $171 | $188 |
| 9.0% | $110 | $117 | $124 | $133 | $144 |
| 10.0% | $89.81 | $94.49 | $99.80 | $106 | $113 |
| 11.0% | $73.93 | $77.37 | $81.20 | $85.52 | $90.42 |
| 12.0% | $61.13 | $63.71 | $66.57 | $69.74 | $73.28 |
About Union Pacific Corporation
Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities. Its diverse cargo includes agricultural products like grain, fertilizers, and refrigerated foods; energy resources such as coal, renewables, petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and industrial materials encompassing construction products, chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals, ores, soda ash, and sand. Union Pacific also facilitates the movement of finished automobiles, automotive parts, and general merchandise in intermodal containers, serving a varied clientele that spans agricultural processors, energy producers, and industrial manufacturers. As of December 31, 2021, the company's vast rail network stretched 32,452 route miles, strategically connecting major ports along the Pacific and Gulf Coasts with crucial gateways throughout the Midwestern and Eastern United States. Established in 1862, Union Pacific Corporation is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
- CEO
- Vincenzo James Vena