TGM's two-stage DCF values UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) between $453.99 and $944.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $642.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$420.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.6%/yr | 8.5% | $453.99 |
| Base case | 10.6%/yr | 7.5% | $642.60 |
| Optimistic | 13.6%/yr | 6.5% | $944.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $264.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$420.74
Market-Implied Growth
+1.7%/yr
vs +10.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$453.99 – $944.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UNH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $22.1B · 0.91B shares · net debt $54.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$642.60
+52.7% vs $420.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $420.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $857 | $974 | $1129 | $1346 | $1671 |
| 6.5% | $668 | $738 | $825 | $937 | $1086 |
| 7.5% | $542 | $588 | $643 | $710 | $794 |
| 8.5% | $452 | $484 | $521 | $566 | $619 |
| 9.5% | $385 | $408 | $435 | $466 | $502 |
