UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)'s fair value in a range of $185.93 – $328.04 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $413.00 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $413.00, the market is pricing in roughly +7.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -3.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$413.00
Fair-Value Range
$185.93 – $328.04
Market-Implied Growth
+7.7%/yr
vs -3.2% 5Y actual
UNH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $21.5B · 0.91B shares · net debt $54.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$328.04
-20.6% vs $413.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $413.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $422 | $447 | $476 | $511 | $554 |
| 9.0% | $354 | $371 | $391 | $413 | $440 |
| 10.0% | $302 | $314 | $328 | $344 | $362 |
| 11.0% | $262 | $271 | $280 | $291 | $304 |
| 12.0% | $229 | $236 | $243 | $251 | $260 |
About UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment provides a wide array of health benefit plans and consumer-focused services. These offerings cater to a broad spectrum of clients, including large national corporations, public sector employers, mid-sized and small businesses, and individual consumers. It also delivers specialized health coverage and wellness programs tailored for individuals aged 50 and older, addressing their needs for preventive and acute care, chronic disease management, and other age-specific health issues. This division further encompasses Medicaid plans, children's health insurance, dental benefits, and various hospital and clinical services. Optum Health focuses on delivering direct healthcare solutions and management services. It facilitates access to networks of specialist care providers, offers health management programs, direct care delivery, consumer engagement initiatives, and financial services. Its diverse clientele includes individuals (served directly through care systems), employers, insurance payers, and government organizations. Optum Insight specializes in providing technology, information, and consulting services to the healthcare industry. Its offerings include software and data products, advisory consulting arrangements, and outsourced managed services. Clients span hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governmental bodies, life sciences companies, and other relevant organizations. Finally, Optum Rx handles the company's pharmaceutical care services. This segment manages retail pharmacy networks, provides home prescription delivery, and offers specialty and compounding pharmacy capabilities. Leveraging its purchasing power and clinical expertise, Optum Rx also develops advanced programs related to step therapy, formulary management, medication adherence, and integrated disease and drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, founded in 1977, has its corporate headquarters located in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Plans
- CEO
- Stephen J. Hemsley