TGM's two-stage DCF values Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) between $460.29 and $834.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $609.98. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$475.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 9.5% | $460.29 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 8.5% | $609.98 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 7.5% | $834.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $518.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$475.36
Market-Implied Growth
+5.4%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$460.29 – $834.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ULTA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.04B shares · net cash $55.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$609.98
+28.3% vs $475.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $475.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $764 | $837 | $929 | $1047 | $1204 |
| 7.5% | $631 | $680 | $737 | $808 | $897 |
| 8.5% | $537 | $571 | $610 | $657 | $712 |
| 9.5% | $466 | $491 | $519 | $552 | $590 |
| 10.5% | $411 | $430 | $451 | $475 | $502 |
