Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)'s fair value in a range of $406.24 – $547.99 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $476.53 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $476.53, the market is pricing in roughly +7.2%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +0.6%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$476.53
Fair-Value Range
$406.24 – $547.99
Market-Implied Growth
+7.2%/yr
vs +0.6% 5Y actual
ULTA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.04B shares · net cash $55.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$406.24
-14.7% vs $476.53
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $476.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $505 | $530 | $561 | $597 | $642 |
| 9.0% | $434 | $451 | $472 | $495 | $523 |
| 10.0% | $379 | $392 | $406 | $422 | $441 |
| 11.0% | $337 | $346 | $356 | $368 | $381 |
| 12.0% | $303 | $310 | $317 | $326 | $335 |
About Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Kecia L. Steelman