TGM's two-stage DCF values Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) between $459.68 and $838.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $610.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$545.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 9.4% | $459.68 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 8.4% | $610.74 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 7.4% | $838.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $509.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$545.90
Market-Implied Growth
+8.4%/yr
vs +0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$459.68 – $838.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ULTA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.04B shares · net cash $55.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$610.74
+11.9% vs $545.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $545.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $767 | $843 | $938 | $1060 | $1225 |
| 7.4% | $632 | $681 | $741 | $813 | $905 |
| 8.4% | $536 | $571 | $611 | $658 | $715 |
| 9.4% | $465 | $490 | $519 | $552 | $590 |
| 10.4% | $410 | $429 | $450 | $474 | $502 |
