TGM's two-stage DCF values Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) between $82.54 and $201.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $131.29. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$178.86 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.2%/yr | 10.4% | $82.54 |
| Base case | 8.2%/yr | 9.4% | $131.29 |
| Optimistic | 11.2%/yr | 8.4% | $201.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $318.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$178.86
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
vs +8.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$82.54 – $201.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UHS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $687.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$131.29
-26.6% vs $178.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $178.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $177 | $197 | $221 | $251 | $288 |
| 8.4% | $138 | $152 | $169 | $188 | $211 |
| 9.4% | $109 | $120 | $131 | $145 | $160 |
| 10.4% | $87.11 | $94.80 | $103 | $113 | $124 |
| 11.4% | $69.28 | $75.27 | $81.91 | $89.34 | $97.69 |