TGM's two-stage DCF values Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) between $80.45 and $196.54 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $128.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$168.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.2%/yr | 10.5% | $80.45 |
| Base case | 8.2%/yr | 9.5% | $128.14 |
| Optimistic | 11.2%/yr | 8.5% | $196.54 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $336.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$168.72
Market-Implied Growth
+12.6%/yr
vs +8.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$80.45 – $196.54
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UHS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $687.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$128.14
-24.1% vs $168.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $168.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $173 | $192 | $215 | $243 | $278 |
| 8.5% | $135 | $149 | $164 | $183 | $205 |
| 9.5% | $107 | $117 | $128 | $141 | $156 |
| 10.5% | $85.14 | $92.64 | $101 | $111 | $121 |
| 11.5% | $67.70 | $73.54 | $80.02 | $87.26 | $95.38 |
