Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) between $80.51 and $194.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $127.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$145.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 10.5% | $80.51 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 9.5% | $127.46 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 8.5% | $194.79 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $384.26 | |
Current Price
$145.69
Market-Implied Growth
+10.7%/yr
vs +8.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$80.51 – $194.79
model output — not a price target
UHS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UHS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $687.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$173.88
+19.4% vs $145.69
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $145.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $243 | $262 | $286 | $315 | $352 |
| 8.5% | $192 | $205 | $221 | $239 | $261 |
| 9.5% | $154 | $163 | $174 | $186 | $200 |
| 10.5% | $125 | $132 | $139 | $148 | $157 |
| 11.5% | $102 | $107 | $112 | $118 | $125 |
About Universal Health Services, Inc.
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS), operating through its various divisions, is a healthcare entity that both owns and manages a network of acute care hospitals, along with outpatient and specialized behavioral health treatment centers. Its business operations are strategically bifurcated into two main segments: Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Care Services. The hospitals under its management provide a comprehensive spectrum of medical provisions, encompassing general and specialty surgical interventions, internal medicine, obstetrics, urgent and emergency department services, diagnostic imaging (radiology), cancer therapy (oncology), advanced diagnostic procedures, cardiac care, pediatric medicine, pharmaceutical services, and mental health support. As of a reported date of February 24, 2022, the company's significant presence included the ownership or operation of 363 inpatient facilities, complemented by 40 outpatient and other specialized sites. These facilities are distributed across 39 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Beyond direct patient care, UHS also extends into commercial health insurance provision and offers a variety of crucial management support functions. These include centralized procurement, information technology infrastructure, financial oversight and control mechanisms, strategic facilities planning, physician talent acquisition, administrative staff management, marketing initiatives, and public relations efforts. Universal Health Services, Inc. was established in 1978 and maintains its principal executive offices in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Care Facilities
- CEO
- Marc D. Miller