TGM's two-stage DCF values Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) between $49.22 and $81.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $64.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$72.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.8% | $49.22 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.8% | $64.01 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $81.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $130.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.14
Market-Implied Growth
+21.0%/yr
vs +34.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$49.22 – $81.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UBER (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.1B · 2.04B shares · net debt $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$64.01
-11.3% vs $72.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $78.11 | $84.02 | $91.04 | $99.52 | $110 |
| 8.8% | $66.30 | $70.50 | $75.36 | $81.05 | $87.81 |
| 9.8% | $57.37 | $60.48 | $64.01 | $68.05 | $72.73 |
| 10.8% | $50.40 | $52.77 | $55.43 | $58.42 | $61.82 |
| 11.8% | $44.80 | $46.66 | $48.72 | $51.01 | $53.57 |
