United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) between $50.10 and $114.43 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$119.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.5% | $50.10 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.5% | $79.90 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.5% | $114.43 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $252.38 | |
Current Price
$119.97
Market-Implied Growth
+24.7%/yr
vs +41.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.10 – $114.43
model output — not a price target
UAL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.32B shares · net debt $18.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$172.00
+43.4% vs $119.97
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $119.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $234 | $250 | $269 | $291 | $318 |
| 9.5% | $189 | $200 | $213 | $228 | $246 |
| 10.5% | $155 | $163 | $172 | $182 | $194 |
| 11.5% | $128 | $134 | $140 | $148 | $156 |
| 12.5% | $106 | $110 | $115 | $121 | $127 |
About United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating the movement of both passengers and freight. The company operates these services using a combination of its primary and regional aircraft fleets. Beyond its core transportation offerings, United also provides specialized support to external clients, encompassing catering, ground handling, aviation training, and aircraft maintenance. Established in 1968, the enterprise has its principal offices in Chicago, Illinois. Notably, it adopted its current name, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., in June 2019, having previously operated as United Continental Holdings, Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
- CEO
- J. Scott Kirby