TGM's two-stage DCF values United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) between $52.76 and $119.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $83.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$121.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $52.76 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $83.77 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.3% | $119.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $246.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$121.71
Market-Implied Growth
+24.2%/yr
vs +33.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.76 – $119.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.32B shares · net debt $18.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$83.77
-31.2% vs $121.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $121.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $112 | $124 | $137 | $153 | $173 |
| 9.3% | $88.67 | $97.03 | $107 | $118 | $131 |
| 10.3% | $70.38 | $76.67 | $83.77 | $91.83 | $101 |
| 11.3% | $55.89 | $60.77 | $66.19 | $72.26 | $79.10 |
| 12.3% | $44.14 | $48.01 | $52.26 | $56.97 | $62.20 |
