TGM's two-stage DCF values United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) between $51.41 and $117.17 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $81.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$108.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.4% | $51.41 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.4% | $81.81 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $117.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $248.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$108.96
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs +33.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$51.41 – $117.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.32B shares · net debt $18.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$81.81
-24.9% vs $108.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $108.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $110 | $121 | $134 | $149 | $168 |
| 9.4% | $86.63 | $94.74 | $104 | $115 | $127 |
| 10.4% | $68.78 | $74.91 | $81.81 | $89.63 | $98.57 |
| 11.4% | $54.61 | $59.37 | $64.65 | $70.56 | $77.21 |
| 12.4% | $43.09 | $46.87 | $51.03 | $55.62 | $60.72 |
