Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TXN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($23.35) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $10.75 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.6% | $15.25 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.6% | $23.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$279.58
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$15.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TXN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1B · 0.91B shares · net debt $11.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.25
-94.5% vs $279.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $279.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $20.19 | $22.12 | $24.37 | $27.02 | $30.18 |
| 9.6% | $16.12 | $17.54 | $19.17 | $21.03 | $23.20 |
| 10.6% | $12.94 | $14.03 | $15.25 | $16.62 | $18.19 |
| 11.6% | $10.39 | $11.24 | $12.19 | $13.23 | $14.41 |
| 12.6% | $8.31 | $8.99 | $9.73 | $10.55 | $11.46 |
