Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TXN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($25.84) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.6%/yr | 11.6% | $10.88 |
| Base case | 3.6%/yr | 10.6% | $17.16 |
| Optimistic | 6.6%/yr | 9.6% | $25.84 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $53.43 | |
Current Price
$297.10
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$17.16
model output — not a price target
TXN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TXN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1B · 0.91B shares · net debt $11.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.14
-93.9% vs $297.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $297.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $24.95 | $26.58 | $28.48 | $30.72 | $33.39 |
| 9.6% | $20.13 | $21.27 | $22.58 | $24.08 | $25.82 |
| 10.6% | $16.38 | $17.21 | $18.14 | $19.19 | $20.39 |
| 11.6% | $13.38 | $13.99 | $14.68 | $15.44 | $16.30 |
| 12.6% | $10.92 | $11.39 | $11.91 | $12.47 | $13.11 |
About Texas Instruments Incorporated
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) specializes in the global design, production, and sale of semiconductors to electronics engineers and manufacturers. Its operations are structured into two core segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The Analog division provides a comprehensive suite of power management products, such as battery-management solutions, various DC/DC and AC/DC switching regulators and controllers, power switches, linear regulators, voltage supervisors, references, and lighting components, all critical for managing diverse power needs. This segment also delivers signal chain products designed to sense, condition, and measure electrical signals, facilitating information transfer or conversion for further processing and control, encompassing items like amplifiers, data converters, interface devices, motor drives, clocks, and sensing technologies. The Embedded Processing segment develops microcontrollers, integral to a wide array of electronic equipment; digital signal processors (DSPs) for complex mathematical computations; and applications processors tailored for specific computing tasks. Products from this segment are utilized across numerous markets, including industrial applications, the automotive sector, personal electronics, communication systems, enterprise solutions, and calculators. Beyond these, TI also produces DLP® products, primarily used in projectors to generate high-definition images; a range of calculators; and custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). The company distributes its semiconductor offerings through a direct sales force, its network of authorized distributors, and its official website. Established in 1930, Texas Instruments is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Haviv Ilan