Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TWLO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($89.93) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$227.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +49.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $56.68 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $72.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $89.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $140.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$227.06
Market-Implied Growth
+49.3%/yr
vs +19.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$72.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TWLO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $510.5M · 0.15B shares · net debt $310.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$72.23
-68.2% vs $227.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $227.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $86.07 | $91.33 | $97.39 | $104 | $113 |
| 10.0% | $74.75 | $78.67 | $83.11 | $88.18 | $94.02 |
| 11.0% | $65.85 | $68.87 | $72.23 | $76.01 | $80.29 |
| 12.0% | $58.69 | $61.06 | $63.68 | $66.59 | $69.83 |
| 13.0% | $52.80 | $54.71 | $56.79 | $59.08 | $61.61 |
